Here we go... There's always a dark side when there's money involved... And when loans come due!

Dangers and Opportunities as #China’s #Loans to #Africa Come Due

Timothy Ditter | Monday, March 18, 2024

"Many African economies are facing a period of serious #economic distress with a very different character from the debt crisis of the 1980s and 1990s. This time, the People’s Republic of China (#PRC) is a major player, and a dramatic decline in PRC lending has compounded economic shocks in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—just as the continent tries to recover from the pandemic. From 2001 to 2022, PRC financial institutions provided more than $170 billion in credit, loans, and grants to #AfricanNations, primarily to fund infrastructure projects tied to the PRC’s Belt and Road Initiative. But new PRC loans to African governments plummeted from $28.4 billion in 2016 to less than $2 billion in 2020 and have continued to decline.

"African governments are awakening to the fact that opaque PRC lending practices and problematic #LoanTerms have rendered already fragile economies at an increased risk of default. However, this moment of peril also provides an opportunity for African economies to build resilience by diversifying their economic partnerships and seeking out lenders with better terms and different motivations.

"I and other CNA analysts from our China Studies and Strategy and Policy Analysis programs have just completed a series of studies on trends in the involvement of the PRC across major sectors in Africa in the context of global shocks. These include the military, mining, infrastructure, and financial sectors. We recently released the report PRC Lending in Africa: Impacts in a Time of Global Shocks. This component of the series focuses on PRC lending to nine African countries. In some cases, PRC loans helped African nations build or upgrade much-needed infrastructure. However, we also found a wide range of PRC lending practices that have contributed to the financial distress and increased the risk of default for African countries ravaged by the global shocks of the last few years. These practices include high interest rates, unfavorable terms, and uncompetitive contracting, most of which is hidden from the public in opaque contracts.

"And when African countries struggle to repay those loans, PRC lenders have taken inflexible positions that have delayed and hardened terms in renegotiations.

"China’s Unforgiving Lenders

"Today’s debt troubles have some of their roots in the loan agreements signed when the PRC was eager to plow its excess savings into foreign loans. Often these agreements made the loans due in just 10 years, compared to up to 35 years for loans from the World Bank. Interest rates are often higher, too. For example, the Export–Import Bank of China charged Djibouti a fully commercial rate for the loan to build the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway, higher than multinational lenders like the World Bank charge for loans. The PRC is #Djibouti’s largest creditor, holding approximately $1.4 billion in debt, equal to about 45 percent of the country’s GDP. In January 2023, Djibouti suspended debt payments to the PRC, making it the second African nation—after #Zambia—to do so.

"Often these agreements require loan recipients to give business to PRC contractors—without competitive bidding. The Export–Import Bank of China contract with #Kenya to finance the Standard Gauge Railway connecting the port city of Mombasa to the Great Rift Valley stipulated that most construction materials would be purchased from the PRC. The project ended up much more costly than anticipated, increasing from 220 billion to 327 billion Kenyan shillings over a period of three years. The Kenya Court of Appeal found that 'the project’s design was manipulated to inflate costs while construction and supervision charges were also overpriced.' Such agreements have helped make China’s construction firms dominant on the continent. A University of London study found that of the 32 major international contractor companies working major construction projects in Ethiopia in 2017, 80 percent were PRC contractors.

"Because PRC loan agreements tend to be opaque, the public is usually not even aware of these loan terms. In the case of the Standard Gauge Railway, the loan with the Export–Import Bank of China was signed in 2014, but details about the terms only became publicly known in 2022, preventing oversight from Kenyan politicians or the public. In some cases, those opaque agreements and #unethical business practices may contribute to corruption. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China funded a dam project in Angola while ignoring various potential red flags, including the involvement of the daughter of Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos. Isabel dos Santos was awarded the $4.5 billion contract to construct the dam by her father’s government in 2015. As of 2023, Angola holds more PRC debt than any other country in Africa. And the #WorldBank listed Angola as one of seven African countries that it considered to be at high risk of debt distress in 2020.

"Our research found that when struggling African nations need to renegotiate their loans, PRC lenders have resisted standard #LoanForgiveness practices and have slowed debt negotiations. The PRC does not follow typical debt negotiation protocols used by multilateral institutions such as the World Bank. Instead, the PRC prefers bilateral negotiations, often behind closed doors, and strongly resists cutting the total principal owed on loans. Rather, PRC lenders favor extending repayment periods or holding infrastructure as collateral on loans. This has an impact on negotiations with other creditors as well, since lenders want concessions to be shared fairly. Recent negotiations to restructure #Chad’s debt with a committee of five bilateral creditors took nearly two years. World Bank and IMF officials claimed that lenders from China unnecessarily delayed the debt deal, an accusation that has come up in debt negotiations with other African countries.

"In the long run, however, this difficult period could have an upside for African nations. The reduction in PRC loans provides an opportunity for African countries to diversify, considering new economic partnerships on more favorable terms, with greater transparency and good governance. African nations can use multilateral negotiations to seek out lenders operating with different motivations, lenders that can help them build domestic economic strength and resilience for the future."

Source:
https://www.cna.org/our-media/indepth/2024/03/china-loans-to-africa

So, this article doesn't mention mining -- but I'll bet that's part of #China's interest in "helping" African nations... Though China does seem to be encouraging #Renewables in Africa, rather than coal, so that's good.

Chinese lenders committed $4.61 bln to #Africa in 2023

Duncan Miriri, Reuters News
August 28, 2024

NAIROBI: "Chinese lenders approved loans worth $4.61 billion to Africa last year, marking the first annual increase since 2016, an independent study showed on Thursday.

"Africa secured more than $10 billion in loans a year from China between 2012-2018, thanks to President Xi Jinping's #BeltAndRoadInitiative (#BRI), but the lending fell precipitously from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

"Last year's figure, a more than three-fold increase from 2022, shows China is keen to curb risks associated with highly indebted economies, the study by Boston University's Global Development Policy Centre found.

"'Beijing appears to be looking for a more sustainable equilibrium level of lending and experimenting with a (new) strategy,' said the university centre, which runs the Chinese Loans to Africa Database project.

"Last year's biggest items include a nearly $1 billion loan from China Development Bank to #Nigeria for the Kaduna-to-Kano #Railway and similar size liquidity facility by the lender to Egypt's central bank.

"China has vaulted to the top bilateral lender for many African nations like #Ethiopia in recent years.

"It has lent the continent a total of $182.28 billion between 2000-2023, the Boston University study found, with the bulk of the finances going to Africa's energy, transport and ICT sectors.

"Africa featured prominently in the initial years of BRI, as China sought to recreate the ancient #SilkRoad and extend its geopolitical and economic influence through a global infrastructure development push.

"China, however, started to turn off the cash spigot in 2019, a shift that was accelerated by the pandemic, leaving a series of incomplete projects around the region, including a modern railway meant to link Kenya with its neighbours.

"The reduction in loans was caused by China's own domestic pressures and growing debt burdens among African economies. #Zambia, #Ghana and #Ethiopia have gone into protracted debt overhauls since 2021.

"More than half of the loans committed last year, or $2.59 billion, were to regional and national lenders, underscoring Beijing's new strategy, the study by Boston University found.

"'Chinese lenders' focus on African financial institutions most likely represent a risk mitigation strategy that avoids exposure to African countries' debt challenges,' it said.

"Nearly a tenth of 2023 loans were for three #solar and #hydropower energy projects, the study found, illustrating a desire by China to move into funding #RenewableEnergy instead of coal-fired power plants.

"Still, the discernible trends in last year's figures did not offer a clear direction of China's financial engagement with the continent, the study showed, since Chinese institutions also wrote loans to ailing economies like #Nigeria and #Angola.

"'It remains to be seen whether China's partnerships in Africa will retain their quality,' the Global Development Policy Centre said."

https://www.zawya.com/en/world/africa/chinas-lending-to-africa-rises-for-first-time-in-seven-years-study-shows-exleyuzi