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#mrp

1 post1 participant0 posts today
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Gabriel Martín

28032025 - Música Religión Pagana | #MRP.

Buenos tardes, con música la vida es más saludable. ¡Feliz viernes!

YT | Queen Album Greatest Hits - Best Queen Songs Collection 2025 - Queen Music 2025 Classic Rock Legends | youtu.be/eWHujLKFwt8
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Que la disfruten. Abrazos.
#music #música #queen #freddiemercury #mastodon #fediverso #fediverse.
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Imagen: Pinterest.
DDI: La imagen muestra una ilustración estilizada de Freddie Mercury, el icónico vocalista de Queen, con el brazo levantado en un gesto triunfal. Lleva una chaqueta amarilla y se le ve en una pose dinámica. Sobre él, hay una frase en español que dice: "Con música la vida es más saludable". En la parte inferior, se puede leer "Música Religión Pagana", junto a una firma o marca de agua. El fondo es negro, creando un contraste con el amarillo vibrante de la ropa de Mercury. La imagen combina una representación artística de Freddie Mercury con un mensaje positivo sobre los beneficios de la música.
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P.D.: 'Los patrones de la música y de todas las artes son las claves del aprendizaje' - (Platón).

La imagen muestra una ilustración estilizada de Freddie Mercury, el icónico vocalista de Queen, con el brazo levantado en un gesto triunfal. Lleva una chaqueta amarilla y se le ve en una pose dinámica. Sobre él, hay una frase en español que dice: "Con música la vida es más saludable". En la parte inferior, se puede leer "Música Religión Pagana", junto a una firma o marca de agua. El fondo es negro, creando un contraste con el amarillo vibrante de la ropa de Mercury. La imagen combina una representación artística de Freddie Mercury con un mensaje positivo sobre los beneficios de la música.
Replied in thread
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UK Election Results

PROJECTION WEBSITES ACCURACY

Moving beyond the MRPs, here's how the various prediction websites fared.

All of them were hurt by an overall inaccuracy in national opinion polling which had Labour too high and the Conservatives too low, and all projections overestimated the SNP.

However, Britain Predicts (AKA Britain Elects) were incredibly accurate, followed by @electionmapsuk.

sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

State of the Nation · Who will win the 2024 UK general election?By Ben Walker
#ukpol#ukpolitics#ge2024
Replied in thread
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UK Election Results

All the other MRP polls were pretty far off the mark, but the wooden spoon goes to #Savanta who were absolutely miles off the mark across the board:

🔴 Labour: -105
🔵 Conservatives: +68
🟠 Liberal Democrats: +22
🟡 SNP: +1
⚪ Reform UK: +5
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 0
🟢 Greens: +4

They also had terrible accuracy for individual seats and the worst website writeup:

savanta.com/knowledge-centre/v

Savanta - Savanta · Savanta’s first MRP of election campaign predicts Labour on for majority of 382 - SavantaSavanta, in partnership with Electoral Calculus and the Telegraph, today publishes our first MRP model of the 2024 General Election based on 17,812 respondents conducted online between 7th and 18th June 2024.
#ukpol#ukpolitics#ge2024
Replied in thread
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UK Election Results

The next closest MRP, by some margin, was #JLPartners.

Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:

🔴 Labour: -31
🔵 Conservatives: +10
🟠 Liberal Democrats: +14
🟡 SNP: -6
⚪ Reform UK: +4
🌻 Plaid Cymru: +1
🟢 Greens: +3

However, their individual constituency estimates were noticeably worse than YouGov's.

You can see JL Partners' final MRP here: jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-part

JLPFinal J.L. Partners SRP Model Project Labour Winning 442 Seats — JLP
#ukpol#ukpolitics#ge2024
Continued thread
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UK Election Results

You can view the final #YouGov MRP projection here:

yougov.co.uk/politics/articles

The actual results were also entirely within the upper and lower estimates by YouGov, and they also seem to have done best at predicting individual constituency results, with very few where the result was outside their margin of error.

Here are the actual results for comparison:

electionmaps.uk/ge2024

yougov.co.ukFinal YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory | YouGovTory seat total would also be a record low
#ukpol#ukpolitics#ge2024
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UK Election Results

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from MRP by #JLabPartners for Channel 4:

🔴 Labour: 442 (+240)
🔵 Conservatives: 111 (-254)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 58 (+47)
🟡 SNP: 15 (-33)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
⚪ Reform UK: 1 (+1)
🟢 Green Party: 1 (=)

Changes with 2019 GE result.

Details, including map: jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-part

JLPFinal J.L. Partners SRP Model Project Labour Winning 442 Seats — JLP
#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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UK Election Results

GUARANTEED ELECTION RESULT:

From all the polls and all the MRPs in particular, it is abundantly clear that Labour are going to win the general election tomorrow with a landslide.

The only things uncertain at this point are:

1) The scale of the Conservative defeat.

2) The performance of the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

3) The number of gains by the Lib Dems/Reform UK/Greens.

4) The Northern Ireland results.

#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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UK Election Results

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from final MRP by #yougov
Details: yougov.co.uk/politics/articles

🔴 Labour: 431 (+229)
🔵 Conservatives: 102 (-263)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 72 (+61)
🟡 SNP: 18 (-30)
⚪ Reform UK: 3 (+3)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
🟢 Green Party: 2 (+1)

Conducted 19 June - 2 July 2024. Changes with 2019 GE result.

yougov.co.ukFinal YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory | YouGovTory seat total would also be a record low
#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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UK Election Results

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from final MRP poll by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 484 (+281)
🔵 Conservatives: 64 (-301)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 61 (+50)
🟡 SNP: 10 (-38)
⚪ Reform UK: 7 (+7)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
🟢 Green Party: 3 (+2)

Conducted 15 June - 1 July 2024. Changes with 2019 GE result.

I'm sceptical.

Details, including map: survation.com/survation-mrp-la

Survation · Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 | SurvationWith two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The...
#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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UK Election Results

MRP OPINION POLLING ANALYSIS

There have been multiple constituency opinion polls this election and multiple MRP polls. To try to tell which MRP's are more accurate, I've compared the constituency opinion poll results with the equivalent MRP seat projections, and the results are very interesting.

Thread below, but the TLDR version is that the #Ipsos and #WeThink MRPs seem to be the closest match to the constituency polling we've seen.

#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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UK Election Results

MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from MRP poll by @Omnisis (#Wethink):

🔴 Labour: 465 (+263)
🔵 Conservatives: 76 (-289)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 52 (+41)
🟡 SNP: 29 (-19)
⚪ Reform UK: 3 (+3)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
🟢 Green Party: 3 (+2)

Conducted 30 May - 21 June 2024. Changes with 2019 GE result.

Details, including map and analysis: wethink.report/news-hub/news/w

wethink.reportWe Think | WeThink MRP: Historic low for the Tories?WeThink and the Economist publish their first-ever MRP for the General Election 2024.
#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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UK Election Results

MRP POLLING ANALYSIS

Further to my thread on this topic yesterday, I've just come across a very good article (regardless of the website it's on) by Peter Kellner of YouGov looking at all the recent MRPs, comparing them, and explaining the reasons for the differences:

conservativehome.com/2024/06/2

Conservative Home · Patrick English: How the proportionality of swing can turn a big Conservative defeat into a wipeout | Conservative HomeWith so many unknowns and so much about the magnitude of the changes coming that could mislead or misdirect pollsters, it is wise to treat the full range of MRP projections as plausible and realiastic outcomes.
#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
Continued thread
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UK Election Results

MRP POLLING ANALYSIS

There is no right or wrong way to do unwinding, it's all a question of judgement calls and best estimates. Maybe this election will look like the local elections and have a largely proportionate swing against the Conservatives. Or maybe it will be like 1997 and be more disproportionate. Pollsters can only make a best guess.

But when you see huge differences between MRP seat projections, this is usually why.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #MRP #GE2024

Continued thread
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UK Election Results

MRP POLLING ANALYSIS

When you consider that all opinion polls have an error margin, you start to realise how significant this is.

If a poll underestimates the Con to Lab swing by just 2.5%, for instance, then 5% margins of victory turn into dead heats.

So how heavily a pollster unwinds the MRP has a huge impact on the level of projected Conservative losses in this election in particular, simply because the current changes in party support are so vast.

#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
Continued thread
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UK Election Results

MRP POLLING ANALYSIS

They apply unwinding to prevent the MRP from showing disproportionately large falls in Conservative voteshare in their safest seats. They do this because in the local elections in May the drop in Conservative support was largely proportional.

But if they *don't* apply unwinding then it ends up with the Conservatives only having 50 seats where their winning margin is greater than 5% (and therefore robust).

#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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UK Election Results

MRP POLLING ANALYSIS

It's worth noting that one of the biggest factors behind the large variances in MRP polling models is the issue of "unwinding".

This is what pollsters call adjusting models to suppress MRP's tendency to create greater than proportional swings against parties in seats where they are strongest. There's no 'correct' way to do this, but it can result in either over or under-estimating the fall in a party's support in held seats.

#ukpolitics#ukpol#polling
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