#Actuaries have issued a call for more #precise #climate #risk #assessments, highlighting the concept of the “
risk of ruin
,” which refers to a critical juncture beyond which global society might be unable to adapt to the ramifications of climate change.
A collaboration between the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries ( #IFoA ) and the University of Exeter has resulted in a report titled
“Climate Scorpion: the sting is in the tail,”
which makes a case for employing risk management strategies traditionally used in financial services to evaluate and convey the risks associated with climate change.
The report advocates for the consideration of “worst-case” scenarios regarding climate change. It also issued a warning that the pace of global warming could be #accelerating, with the likelihood it could surpass the 1.5°C target becoming increasingly plausible.
This could lead to several tipping points, including the #collapse of the #Greenland #ice #sheets, which could have long-lasting consequences.
Unexpected sensitivity to climate change is also a concern, as what is often described as a “#tail-#risk” might have a higher probability of resulting in significant temperature increases.
Methodologies are also now suggesting that a doubling of #greenhouse #gas concentrations could lead to #temperature rises of 7°C or more.
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/uk/news/environmental/policymakers-urged-to-consider-risk-of-ruin-for-climate-481136.aspx