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#strategy

35 posts28 participants2 posts today

"Leaders who think beyond the current storm are the ones who shape what happens after it." - Futurist Jim Carroll

Here's a key thing to think about: strategic foresight always beats tactical firefighting.

The strongest organizations think beyond today’s chaos—and start building the world they want to lead. That's because they know that economic growth always follows the minds that create the ideas of tomorrow, and they know it's better to be one of those minds.

Most leaders and organizations don't do this though. It’s easy, in a time of volatility, to fall into survival mode. Watching the headlines, managing today’s problems, and delaying everything else. But if history teaches us anything, it's this: the companies that think beyond the current storm are the ones that shape what happens after it.

They don't just react to the present—they create the future. They subscribe to the most important statement about the future made by Bill Gates: "Most people tend to overestimate the rate of change on a two-year basis, but underestimate change on a ten-year basis." With that in mind, they know one of the most important things they need to be doing right now is to ensure they have a firm grasp of what comes tomorrow - and what they need to do about it.

Why does it matter? Leadership during uncertainty isn’t just about managing immediate fires. It’s about constantly asking: “What world will emerge next—and how do we lead it?” Forward-oriented thinking forces you to operate across two horizons: managing today’s pressures realistically, and strategizing tomorrow’s opportunities relentlessly. You can't do the latter if you don't have a firm grasp on what comes tomorrow.

McKinsey research shows that companies that allocate resources based on future trends—not just past results—outperform their industry peers by nearly 40% over 10 years. The fact is, short-term thinking Is a trap but sadly, it has become the norm. When volatility rises, leadership conversations shrink - from multi-year strategy to monthly budgets; from future innovation to weekly crisis meetings; from new market creation to operational firefighting; and from big, bold, long-term visions to small, narrow daily actions.

And the fact is, the longer you stay trapped today, the further you fall behind the leaders building tomorrow. The future doesn't slow down in a recession - it speeds up.

You can’t sit back and hope the future will be kind to you. You have to go out and shape it.

The companies that will dominate the next decade are already investing in new capabilities, technologies, markets, and ideas—even while today’s challenges are raging. 

Realize this: tomorrow’s winners are already thinking past today's chaos.

**#Foresight** **#Leadership** **#Trends** **#Innovation** **#Future** **#Strategy** **#Opportunity** **#Disruption**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

Ever watched a colleague cling to a failing strategy like it's a badge of honour? But in business, as in probability, sticking to your first instinct isn't always smart—it's often a trap. 🎲 Enter the Monty Hall paradox, a powerful metaphor for organisational leadership.

robert.winter.ink/why-great-ma

Dr Robert N. Winter · Why Great Managers Know When to Switch Doors
More from Dr Robert N. Winter

Out now with Native Linux support and it's Steam Deck Verified, Fortune Street is the latest game from Binogure Studio (City Game Studio, Sneak In) that puts a fresh, fast and chaotic spin on the classic Monopoly.
gamingonlinux.com/2025/04/love

GamingOnLinux · Love board games and pure chaos? Fortune Avenue is a new spin on Monopoly out in Early AccessBy Liam Dawe

"Speed beats hesitation. Especially when the path isn't clear." - Futurist Jim Carroll

In a downturn, momentum matters more than perfection. Delay costs more than missteps. The biggest risk isn’t moving too fast—it’s moving too slow while the world speeds up.

And yet, In times of uncertainty, the most natural instinct of all is to wait. Wait for the data. Wait for a signal. Wait until the noise settles, the picture clarifies, and the next steps feel obvious. But here’s what too many leaders forget - the path forward doesn’t get clearer by standing still, it gets clearer by moving.

We are deep into a moment when the cost of indecision is far greater than the cost of action, and the trap of your 'aggressive indecision' becomes more significant every day. I've seen it play out countless times: a moment of economic volatility hits, and leadership teams and people fall into a state in which they decide the easiest decision to make is to simply .... not make them.

It’s not that they don’t care. It’s that they overthink things. They fritter away time in endless meetings. They chase every scenario. They wait for perfect timing. They pause strategic initiatives. They delay customer-facing launches. They stall their momentum—believing they’re being cautious when in reality, they’re just stuck. And so in a world in which the future belongs to those who are fast, they slow down.

And while they stall? Markets shift. Competitors move Talent gets restless. Customers look elsewhere. That's the wrong thing to do - history favors the decisive, and who move at the speed demanded by fast-changing circumstances.

Data backs this up. A comprehensive Harvard Business Review study of 4,700 public companies over three recessions found that the top performers weren’t the ones who paused—they were the ones who acted strategically, quickly, and with confidence. Only 9% of companies outperformed their peers after a downturn—and they did it by balancing discipline with decisive moves at speed. A McKinsey study found the same: companies that moved first and fast during a downturn consistently gained market share during the recovery.

In short? While caution may feel responsible, the real risk lies in hesitation.

Doing nothing often costs far more than doing something imperfectly.

So what should you do? Start moving. Fast. Start moving before you’re ready - simply because you know that speed matters.

----
Futurist Jim Carroll recognizes that moving at speed matters and that with this period of uncertainty set to linger for quite some time, a book to help leaders dance through the rain is timely.

**#Speed** **#Indecision** **#Action** **#Momentum** **#Uncertainty** **#Leadership** **#Strategy** **#Agility** **#Opportunities** **#Progress**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

What hope is there to operate strategically when it feels like your plans change every time you turn on the news?

In the latest Thinkydoers Short, I'm sharing the framework I use to navigate today's unpredictable environment with my clients affected by -- *hand waves* -- all of this.

✨ Identify your strategic anchors
✨ Learn a new angle on an old question
✨ Focus on your "To Done" list, not endless "To Do's"

Find the latest Thinkydoers #podcast wherever you listen to podcasts!

"Uncertainty? Don't wait for clarity —create it!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

In a downturn, experimentation isn’t risky. It’s responsible - because it helps to build some clarity where often that clarity does not yet exist.

That doesn't seem intuitive. In uncertain times, it’s easy to assume that clarity comes from caution - that the path forward will emerge once the noise dies down, once the data stabilizes, and once the market settles.

You end up waiting a long time for that! You end up waiting for clarity that never comes, because here’s the truth: clarity doesn’t arrive. It’s earned.

And the way you earn it—especially in a downturn—is by moving.

Testing. Learning. Iterating. Acting. Trying ideas to see what works. Doing things for the sake of doing, not necessarily for the big win, but to figure out what works, and what does not. And in doing so, you create your sense of clarity.  That’s how you cut through the fog. That’s how you avoid paralysis.

That’s how you lead.

Experiments are your edge in an era of uncertainty because they are fuel to ignite clarity that is otherwise missing. Remember what I've said in this series - in times of economic pressure, many organizations retreat into stasis They pause product launches, cancel initiatives, and wait for signals. But the companies that thrive in a downturn do the opposite: They turn uncertainty into a laboratory. They run small tests. They build fast prototypes. They launch controlled rollouts. They create momentum—and clarity—through movement.

That’s not reckless. It’s responsible. And it builds something more valuable than predictions or plans: experiential capital.

Here’s how you start building that advantage now:

- launch a live test. Choose one customer segment. Try something new. Measure real results.

- prototype under pressure. Push a rough idea into the market. Let feedback shape the next version.

- accelerate learning loops. Replace long planning cycles with fast experiments. Learn weekly, not quarterly.

- capture insight. Build a shared learning bank. Don’t waste failure—mine it for gold.

- empower your team to try. Make experimentation safe. Celebrate effort, not just outcomes.

- rush something forward. It doesn’t have to be perfect—just real. Let motion build momentum.

- track what works. Treat every test as a data generator. Use outcomes to refine, redirect, and repeat.

- build a culture of motion. Innovation isn’t a project. It’s a mindset. You build it by doing.

Use urgency as fuel. In the face of hesitation, push forward. Action reveals what planning can’t. Make experiential capital your strategy. In a world that punishes delay, the most learned win..

#Experimentation #Clarity #Action #Testing #Innovation #Momentum #Learning #Strategy #Uncertainty #Adaptation

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

Final Outpost: Definitive Edition from Exabyte Games is the expanded and upgraded version of their popular mobile game. They've now announced the full PC release with Native Linux support will arrive on May 22nd.
gamingonlinux.com/2025/04/popu

GamingOnLinux · Popular mobile game Final Outpost: Definitive Edition arrives gets a PC release on May 22By Liam Dawe